tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:47 am at Newark)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: UA 3650 at 13:29 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 3650 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 13:29 MEM 15:25 16% 6% 0.6% 83%
UA 3563 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 21:23 MEM 23:30 33% 8% 1.0% 79%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:21 → ORD 19:23AA 1936 3h 07m Chicago ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy 7h 57m 92% 79%
UnitedDetails → EWR 12:36 → IAH 15:34UA 2204 2h 31m Houston IAH 18:05 → MEM 19:54UA 6167 · flown by Mesa 8h 18m 88% 72%
AmericanDetails → EWR 12:50 → DFW 15:07AA 1796 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:46 → MEM 19:26AA 3932 · flown by Envoy 7h 36m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661 2h 46m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317 7h 36m 93% 68%
DeltaDetails → EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → MEM 23:29DL 8930 8h 00m 97% 66%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 16:47 → MEM 17:14DL 1681 6h 14m 95% 65%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:00 → MSP 17:08DL 2895 2h 57m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 8h 15m 92% 64%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:12 → IAH 17:10UA 2690 3h 11m Houston IAH 20:21 → MEM 22:06UA 1794 8h 54m 96% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 12:36 → IAH 15:34UA 2204 50m Houston IAH 16:24 → MEM 18:12UA 6158 · flown by Mesa 6h 36m 64% 52%
DeltaDetails → EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322 55m Atlanta ATL 20:09 → MEM 20:34DL 3020 5h 05m 62% 42%
DeltaDetails → EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401 47m Atlanta ATL 16:47 → MEM 17:14DL 1681 4h 45m 61% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON