Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:02 pm at Newark); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3564 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:59	MKE 23:34	31%	6%	1.1%	75%
UA 3562 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:47	MKE 18:26	31%	6%	0.7%	83%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268	8h 27m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 19:48 → MKE 20:54DL 2388	8h 25m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:00 → MSP 17:08DL 2895	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → MKE 21:41DL 4468 · flown by SkyWest	7h 41m	94%	74%
American Details →	EWR 14:28 → ORD 16:09AA 1691	3h 50m Chicago	ORD 19:59 → MKE 21:01AA 4888 · flown by SkyWest	7h 33m	100%	73%
United Details →	EWR 13:10 → ORD 14:53UA 2053	3h 22m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → MKE 19:26UA 5956 · flown by SkyWest	7h 16m	96%	69%
United Details →	EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → MKE 20:56UA 4711 · flown by SkyWest	7h 11m	92%	67%
United Details →	EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MKE 22:29UA 5362 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	93%	67%
American Details →	EWR 14:20 → ORD 16:15AA 2250	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 19:16 → MKE 20:19AA 6273 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	89%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430	58m Atlanta	ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268	5h 57m	61%	48%
American Details →	EWR 13:30 → CLT 15:34AA 1819	52m Charlotte	CLT 16:26 → MKE 17:37AA 2846	5h 07m	61%	39%
American Details →	EWR 17:18 → DFW 20:18AA 813	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → MKE 23:34AA 1234	7h 16m	51%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON