Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1641 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1641 EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1331 EWR 21:55 → MSP 23:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1641 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:15	MSP 08:13	5%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 283 United	EWR 07:14	MSP 09:16	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2183 United Flight history →	EWR 07:18	MSP 09:18	9%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 2864 Delta Flight history →	EWR 11:47	MSP 13:45	12%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 1068 United Flight history →	EWR 13:55	MSP 15:55	17%	6%	0.6%	81%
DL 2895 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:00	MSP 17:08	19%	5%	0.7%	78%
DL 2866 Delta Flight history →	EWR 18:45	MSP 21:00	25%	7%	0.7%	75%
UA 424 United	EWR 14:18	MSP 16:15	28%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1331 United Flight history →	EWR 21:55	MSP 23:59	28%	7%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON