Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1309 at 07:00, 16%.

Safest bet that day UA 1309 EWR 07:00 → MSY 09:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 782 EWR 15:43 → MSY 17:58 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1309 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	MSY 09:11	16%	5%	0.6%	96%worse than usual
UA 2468 United Flight history →	EWR 12:33	MSY 14:44	23%	7%	1.3%	83%
UA 1527 United Flight history →	EWR 08:39	MSY 10:58	25%	6%	0.7%	74%
UA 782 United Flight history →	EWR 15:43	MSY 17:58	37%	12%	1.3%	80%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	52m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:16DL 3157	4h 45m	80%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON