Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3267 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 3267 EWR 06:56 → ORD 08:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1936 EWR 17:21 → ORD 19:23 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3267 American Flight history →	EWR 06:56	ORD 08:44	8%	3%	2.7%	88%
UA 530 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ORD 07:41	9%	3%	0.3%	92%
AA 3185 American Flight history →	EWR 05:30	ORD 07:15	9%	4%	0.6%	88%
AA 1600 American	EWR 06:52	ORD 08:23	11%	3%	2.7%	no record
UA 2488 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	ORD 09:43	13%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 2800 United Flight history →	EWR 07:15	ORD 09:00	13%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 2754 United	EWR 07:10	ORD 08:36	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2290 United Flight history →	EWR 09:20	ORD 11:04	15%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 1525 United Flight history →	EWR 10:24	ORD 12:06	15%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 3170 American Flight history →	EWR 10:40	ORD 12:25	15%	4%	2.7%	84%
UA 1439 United	EWR 11:17	ORD 12:53	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1875 United Flight history →	EWR 11:25	ORD 13:08	19%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 2053 United Flight history →	EWR 13:10	ORD 14:53	22%	5%	0.6%	77%
AA 2250 American Flight history →	EWR 14:20	ORD 16:15	28%	8%	2.1%	57%
UA 546 United Flight history →	EWR 20:19	ORD 22:06	30%	6%	0.7%	69%
AA 1691 American Flight history →	EWR 14:28	ORD 16:10	31%	8%	2.1%	54%
UA 2788 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	ORD 16:28	33%	6%	0.6%	50%
UA 661 United Flight history →	EWR 16:45	ORD 18:34	37%	8%	0.6%	50%
UA 254 United Flight history →	EWR 18:15	ORD 20:10	37%	8%	0.7%	44%
AA 1936 American Flight history →	EWR 17:21	ORD 19:23	39%	10%	1.9%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON