Today: UA 3603 at 15:30 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet today UA 3603 EWR 15:30 → ORF 17:03 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest G7 4525 EWR 21:17 → ORF 22:54 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3603 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:30	ORF 17:03	16%	4%	1.0%	82%
UA 3439 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:59	ORF 21:42	24%	4%	1.3%	78%
UA 4524 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 15:50	ORF 17:27	24%	7%	1.3%	79%
UA 3478 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 17:40	ORF 19:22	26%	4%	1.2%	83%
G7 4525 GoJet	EWR 21:17	ORF 22:54	26%	10%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON