Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1771 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1771 EWR 06:35 → PBI 09:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 143 EWR 13:59 → PBI 16:54 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1771 United Flight history →	EWR 06:35	PBI 09:35	6%	2%	1.0%	93%
UA 2018 United Flight history →	EWR 09:06	PBI 12:06	14%	4%	0.9%	92%
UA 1797 United Flight history →	EWR 13:07	PBI 16:09	18%	6%	0.9%	75%
UA 2659 United Flight history →	EWR 15:25	PBI 18:27	23%	10%	0.9%	75%
UA 2650 United Flight history →	EWR 20:19	PBI 23:28	23%	13%	0.9%	74%
B6 2143 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 10:30	PBI 13:23	27%	6%	0.8%	73%
B6 143 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 13:59	PBI 16:54	30%	11%	0.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON