Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1613 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1613 EWR 06:30 → PDX 09:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 290 EWR 17:05 → PDX 20:17 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1613 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	PDX 09:25	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
AS 1630 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 06:30	PDX 09:33	11%	2%	0.8%	90%
AS 1399 Alaska	EWR 06:27	PDX 09:27	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 560 United Flight history →	EWR 18:45	PDX 21:48	27%	12%	0.7%	74%
AS 290 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 17:05	PDX 20:17	30%	9%	0.9%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → PDX 11:38UA 1994	8h 38m	96%	89%
United Details →	EWR 07:42 → DEN 09:53UA 1758	1h 34m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	8h 27m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	52m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → PDX 10:41DL 2415	7h 26m	94%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON