Today: UA 370 at 13:12 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–48%.

Safest bet today UA 370 EWR 13:12 → PHX 15:32 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 2612 EWR 18:53 → PHX 21:15 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 370 United Flight history →	EWR 13:12	PHX 15:32	20%	6%	0.2%	97%worse than usual
AA 1282 American Flight history →	EWR 07:15	PHX 09:28	20%	4%	0.4%	86%
UA 1289 United	EWR 09:58	PHX 12:19	20%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2825 American Flight history →	EWR 10:48	PHX 13:21	21%	4%	0.3%	77%
AA 3058 American Flight history →	EWR 10:54	PHX 13:04	23%	4%	0.3%	78%
UA 2858 United Flight history →	EWR 16:30	PHX 18:56	32%	9%	0.4%	74%
UA 676 United	EWR 18:18	PHX 20:40	38%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 1816 American Flight history →	EWR 17:29	PHX 19:51	39%	10%	0.5%	63%
AA 3041 American	EWR 17:24	PHX 19:40	40%	11%	0.5%	no record
UA 2321 United	EWR 20:17	PHX 22:21	42%	14%	0.8%	no record
UA 2612 United	EWR 18:53	PHX 21:15	48%	15%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 07:51 → DEN 10:09UA 1701	1h 16m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	7h 34m	89%	74%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	7h 22m	86%	71%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	1h 04m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	6h 55m	86%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON