Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1810 at 12:06, 18%.

Safest bet today UA 1810 EWR 12:06 → RSW 15:23 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2188 EWR 18:45 → RSW 21:55 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 1810 United	EWR 12:06	RSW 15:23	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2044 United Flight history →	EWR 14:17	RSW 17:24	29%	9%	0.6%	63%
UA 1832 United Flight history →	EWR 15:36	RSW 18:47	31%	9%	0.6%	77%
UA 1845 United Flight history →	EWR 19:06	RSW 22:17	40%	12%	0.8%	65%
UA 2188 United	EWR 18:45	RSW 21:55	42%	12%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON