tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:50 am at Newark)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Dulles, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 591 United Flight history → EWR 09:29 SAT 12:30 21% 5% 0.3% 87%
UA 515 United Flight history → EWR 12:20 SAT 15:21 26% 8% 0.3% 88%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 3h 47m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SAT 16:29UA 2844 9h 30m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:41 → DEN 09:54UA 1758 3h 50m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 14m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → EWR 10:40 → ORD 12:25AA 3170 2h 34m Chicago ORD 14:59 → SAT 17:59AA 4176 · flown by Envoy 8h 19m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:20 → ORD 11:04UA 2290 2h 40m Chicago ORD 13:44 → SAT 16:46UA 1252 8h 26m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 13:25 → SAT 17:14DL 2680 10h 59m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530 1h 44m Chicago ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490 7h 29m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366 1h 03m Dulles IAD 08:25 → SAT 10:59UA 1789 5h 59m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566 1h 58m Detroit DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458 6h 56m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:53 → IAH 13:38UA 556 53m Houston IAH 14:31 → SAT 15:39UA 1819 5h 46m 59% 41%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → SFO 17:48UA 2328 49m San Francisco SFO 18:37 → SAT 00:29 +1UA 6036 · flown by SkyWest 10h 44m 54% 38%
UnitedDetails → EWR 17:12 → DEN 19:45UA 1197 54m Denver DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395 7h 43m 46% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON