Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2115 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 2115 EWR 06:00 → SFO 09:09 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1844 EWR 18:00 → SFO 21:28 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2115 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	SFO 09:09	19%	5%	0.3%	85%
UA 1960 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	SFO 09:59	22%	6%	0.6%	72%
UA 1777 United Flight history →	EWR 08:15	SFO 11:29	22%	6%	0.5%	72%
UA 648 United Flight history →	EWR 10:40	SFO 13:51	23%	6%	0.7%	72%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	EWR 13:30	SFO 16:28	27%	8%	0.7%	73%
UA 1343 United Flight history →	EWR 11:50	SFO 15:01	27%	6%	0.7%	68%
UA 1593 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	SFO 12:14	28%	9%	0.5%	50%
UA 2080 United Flight history →	EWR 16:00	SFO 19:28	34%	13%	0.7%	62%
UA 2328 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	SFO 17:48	37%	12%	0.7%	68%
UA 2004 United Flight history →	EWR 16:12	SFO 19:26	37%	13%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
UA 1558 United Flight history →	EWR 19:20	SFO 22:59	37%	12%	0.8%	52%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SFO 20:37	39%	14%	0.8%	62%
UA 1844 United Flight history →	EWR 18:00	SFO 21:28	42%	13%	0.8%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 14:15 → CLE 16:01UA 3616 · flown by Republic	1h 39m Cleveland	CLE 17:40 → SFO 19:55UA 234	8h 40m	96%	83%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 19m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 25m	92%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON