Today: B6 1889 at 11:18 is the safest bet, 32% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–54%.

Safest bet today B6 1889 EWR 11:18 → SJU 15:14 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest B6 2389 EWR 21:55 → SJU 01:59 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


B6 1889 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 11:18	SJU 15:14	32%	12%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
UA 1543 United Flight history →	EWR 19:45	SJU 23:50	39%	9%	0.5%	67%
B6 2389 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 21:55	SJU 01:59	54%	19%	1.0%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON