Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:27 pm at Newark); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 16:45, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 22% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 2033 Delta Flight history →	EWR 17:59	SLC 21:21	46%	18%	0.4%	78%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 15:00 → MSP 17:08DL 2895	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1051	9h 13m	93%	71%
United Details →	EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 20:10 → SLC 22:48UA 1710	10h 03m	93%	70%
Delta Details →	EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660	10h 08m	97%	70%
United Details →	EWR 14:12 → IAH 17:10UA 2690	3h 15m Houston	IAH 20:25 → SLC 22:43UA 2157	10h 31m	95%	68%
Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	9h 57m	94%	68%
United Details →	EWR 14:45 → SFO 17:48UA 2328	3h 06m San Francisco	SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest	11h 14m	92%	67%
United Details →	EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120	2h 25m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	8h 16m	92%	67%
United Details →	EWR 14:15 → LAX 17:13UA 2191	3h 06m Los Angeles	LAX 20:19 → SLC 23:11UA 5744 · flown by SkyWest	10h 56m	94%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120	47m Denver	DEN 17:45 → SLC 19:25UA 5762 · flown by SkyWest	6h 45m	46%	33%
American Details →	EWR 17:19 → DFW 20:18AA 813	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → SLC 22:59AA 2993	7h 40m	50%	30%
Delta Details →	EWR 19:06 → ATL 21:33DL 2340	52m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	7h 20m	22%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON