Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:05 am at Newark)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2624 at 18:19, 37%.

Nonstops today


UA 2624 United Flight history →	EWR 18:19	SMF 21:48	37%	14%	0.7%	74%worse than usual
UA 1926 United	EWR 18:23	SMF 21:18	41%	16%	0.8%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON