Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2423 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2423 EWR 06:42 → SNA 09:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1690 EWR 17:00 → SNA 20:06 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2423 United Flight history →	EWR 06:42	SNA 09:35	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1350 United Flight history →	EWR 14:29	SNA 17:18	20%	8%	0.6%	79%
UA 2477 United	EWR 14:39	SNA 17:32	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1690 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SNA 20:06	25%	6%	0.6%	87%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530	59m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304	8h 21m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857	8h 05m	96%	84%
United Details →	EWR 07:41 → DEN 09:53UA 1758	1h 27m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320	8h 10m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON