Today: DL 1072 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–25%.

Safest bet today DL 1072 EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1472 EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1072 Delta Flight history →	EYW 07:50	ATL 09:54	11%	4%	1.0%	90%
DL 1281 Delta Flight history →	EYW 11:56	ATL 14:03	19%	5%	1.2%	89%
DL 2168 Delta Flight history →	EYW 18:18	ATL 20:32	24%	6%	1.3%	82%
DL 1472 Delta Flight history →	EYW 14:24	ATL 16:31	25%	5%	1.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON