Today: AA 3519 at 16:41 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–35%.

Safest bet today AA 3519 EYW 16:41 → CLT 19:12 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1826 EYW 13:01 → CLT 15:25 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3519 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	EYW 16:41	CLT 19:12	21%	5%	0.8%	87%
MQ 3368 Envoy	EYW 19:19	CLT 21:48	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3822 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	EYW 16:52	CLT 19:09	26%	5%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
AA 2533 American Flight history →	EYW 19:33	CLT 21:55	33%	8%	1.9%	59%
AA 1816 American Flight history →	EYW 12:52	CLT 15:11	35%	10%	0.8%	82%worse than usual
AA 1826 American Flight history →	EYW 13:01	CLT 15:25	35%	12%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON