tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:25 pm at Key West); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Miami, leaving 19:40, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Key West). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → EYW 19:40 → MIA 20:30AA 3517 · flown by Envoy 2h 19m Miami MIA 22:49 → DFW 00:59 +1AA 2343 6h 19m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → EYW 17:29 → MIA 18:26AA 3895 · flown by Envoy 3h 26m Miami MIA 21:52 → DFW 00:05 +1AA 860 7h 36m 100% 70%
AmericanDetails → EYW 16:18 → ORD 19:06AA 3996 · flown by Envoy 2h 33m Chicago ORD 21:39 → DFW 00:05 +1AA 2281 8h 47m 94% 69%
UnitedDetails → EYW 16:00 → ORD 18:55UA 3499 · flown by Republic 55m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 7h 36m 77% 64%
AmericanDetails → EYW 16:52 → CLT 19:09AA 3822 · flown by Envoy 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 22:33 → DFW 00:35 +1AA 2302 8h 43m 100% 63%
AmericanDetails → EYW 16:41 → CLT 19:12AA 3519 · flown by Envoy 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 22:36 → DFW 00:29 +1AA 1271 8h 48m 97% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON