Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Fairbanks); 8 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: AS 1508 at 15:53, 36%.

Nonstops today


AS 1508 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 15:53	SEA 20:36	36%	11%	0.7%	73%
AS 97 Alaska	FAI 16:06	SEA 20:55	37%	11%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h ahead of Fairbanks). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON