Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1774 FAT 05:00 → DEN 08:22 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1423 FAT 11:35 → DEN 14:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1774 United Flight history →	FAT 05:00	DEN 08:22	9%	4%	0.2%	93%
UA 5787 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 09:00	DEN 12:34	11%	4%	0.2%	91%
WN 1703 Southwest	FAT 11:30	DEN 14:51	13%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 5292 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 12:15	DEN 15:51	13%	7%	0.5%	85%
UA 4764 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 12:45	DEN 16:42	13%	8%	0.5%	90%
WN 1423 Southwest Flight history →	FAT 11:35	DEN 14:50	18%	3%	0.4%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON