Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2653 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 2653 FAT 05:41 → DFW 10:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1329 FAT 15:07 → DFW 20:30 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2653 American Flight history →	FAT 05:41	DFW 10:59	11%	4%	2.1%	89%
AA 2591 American Flight history →	FAT 06:41	DFW 12:00	15%	5%	2.1%	87%
AA 2472 American Flight history →	FAT 23:59	DFW 05:10	22%	7%	1.8%	80%
AA 1828 American Flight history →	FAT 11:05	DFW 16:29	28%	10%	1.2%	79%
AA 1827 American Flight history →	FAT 15:03	DFW 20:30	37%	13%	1.3%	36%
AA 1329 American	FAT 15:07	DFW 20:30	37%	12%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON