Today: WN 2422 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet today WN 2422 FAT 10:35 → LAS 11:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest G4 1634 FAT 15:31 → LAS 16:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2422 Southwest Flight history →	FAT 10:35	LAS 11:55	11%	4%	0.2%	85%
WN 1901 Southwest	FAT 10:26	LAS 11:46	11%	4%	0.2%	no record
G4 5 Allegiant	FAT 08:39	LAS 10:02	14%	7%	0.4%	no record
WN 4461 Southwest Flight history →	FAT 16:35	LAS 17:50	21%	7%	0.2%	38%
G4 52 Allegiant	FAT 21:08	LAS 22:31	22%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 1589 Southwest	FAT 15:20	LAS 16:41	22%	7%	0.2%	no record
G4 11 Allegiant Flight history →	FAT 14:06	LAS 15:19	28%	9%	0.4%	81%
G4 1634 Allegiant Flight history →	FAT 15:31	LAS 16:44	33%	10%	0.4%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON