tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:40 am at Fresno); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5307 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → FAT 13:58 LAX 15:23 22% 7% 0.2% 92%worse than usual
UA 5759 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → FAT 18:09 LAX 19:32 28% 9% 0.2% 80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FAT 12:35 → SLC 15:21DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 32m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → FAT 17:13 → SLC 19:58DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197 6h 29m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → FAT 18:40 → SFO 19:44UA 5349 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m San Francisco SFO 22:37 → LAX 00:19 +1UA 2179 5h 39m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → FAT 12:15 → DEN 15:51UA 5292 · flown by SkyWest 2h 14m Denver DEN 18:05 → LAX 19:40UA 2240 7h 25m 95% 70%
UnitedDetails → FAT 12:46 → DEN 16:42UA 4764 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Denver DEN 17:48 → LAX 19:24UA 1753 6h 38m 86% 65%
SouthwestDetails → FAT 16:35 → LAS 17:50WN 4461 2h 46m Las Vegas LAS 20:36 → LAX 21:51WN 481 5h 16m 99% 64%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 17:51 → PDX 19:50AS 3285 · flown by SkyWest 1h 37m Portland PDX 21:27 → LAX 23:56AS 1389 6h 05m 88% 63%
AmericanDetails → FAT 16:37 → PHX 18:24AA 4091 · flown by Envoy 2h 14m Phoenix PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204 5h 30m 94% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON