Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:28 am at Fresno)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 3487 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 07:30	PDX 09:27	9%	3%	0.2%	92%
AS 3285 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 17:51	PDX 19:50	16%	8%	0.7%	84%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FAT 05:25 → LAS 06:35WN 1842	2h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 09:10 → PDX 11:30WN 2208	6h 05m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	FAT 06:00 → SLC 08:41DL 4138 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 10m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	FAT 09:48 → SLC 12:29DL 3786 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	6h 21m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	FAT 17:13 → SLC 19:58DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	6h 31m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	FAT 12:35 → SLC 15:21DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest	2h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	5h 43m	97%	81%
Alaska Details →	FAT 13:27 → SEA 15:43AS 384	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 19:22 → PDX 20:17AS 2372 · flown by Horizon	6h 50m	97%	79%
United Details →	FAT 06:30 → SFO 07:34UA 5338 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m San Francisco	SFO 10:26 → PDX 12:20UA 2624	5h 50m	97%	79%
American Details →	FAT 06:15 → PHX 08:01AA 6275 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Phoenix	PHX 10:43 → PDX 13:32AA 2986	7h 17m	93%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	FAT 08:46 → SAN 10:12AS 3409 · flown by SkyWest	52m San Diego	SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576	4h 57m	60%	46%
Alaska Details →	FAT 11:46 → SAN 13:14AS 3491 · flown by SkyWest	49m San Diego	SAN 14:03 → PDX 16:36AS 1402	4h 50m	57%	39%
Alaska Details →	FAT 07:00 → SEA 09:22AS 3219 · flown by SkyWest	52m Seattle	SEA 10:14 → PDX 11:21AS 3090 · flown by SkyWest	4h 21m	39%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON