Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 4111 at 09:52 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4111 FAT 09:52 → PHX 11:48 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 668 FAT 18:48 → PHX 20:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4111 Envoy	FAT 09:52	PHX 11:48	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6275 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:15	PHX 08:01	15%	6%	0.3%	86%
AA 4091 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	FAT 16:37	PHX 18:24	19%	5%	0.6%	84%
AA 1831 American Flight history →	FAT 12:56	PHX 14:37	22%	8%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AA 2396 American Flight history →	FAT 13:03	PHX 14:54	24%	8%	0.8%	82%
OO 4978 SkyWest	FAT 16:26	PHX 18:27	25%	13%	0.6%	no record
AA 1829 American Flight history →	FAT 19:35	PHX 21:15	35%	12%	0.8%	51%
AA 668 American	FAT 18:48	PHX 20:35	37%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON