Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 3219 FAT 07:00 → SEA 09:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 394 FAT 19:27 → SEA 21:36 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3219 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 07:00	SEA 09:22	15%	4%	0.3%	98%worse than usual
AS 3345 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 07:03	SEA 09:18	17%	5%	0.3%	74%
AS 282 Alaska Flight history →	FAT 20:32	SEA 22:51	19%	4%	0.7%	82%
AS 384 Alaska Flight history →	FAT 13:27	SEA 15:43	22%	7%	0.6%	86%
AS 394 Alaska	FAT 19:27	SEA 21:36	25%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON