Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:26 pm at Fresno); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 3768 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 12:35	SLC 15:21	13%	6%	0.2%	93%
DL 3777 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 17:13	SLC 19:58	18%	5%	0.2%	93%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Fresno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	FAT 12:46 → DEN 16:42UA 4764 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	7h 10m	98%	67%
Southwest Details →	FAT 16:35 → LAS 17:50WN 4461	2h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 20:25 → SLC 22:55WN 4225	5h 20m	99%	64%
American Details →	FAT 16:37 → PHX 18:24AA 4091 · flown by Envoy	1h 54m Phoenix	PHX 20:18 → SLC 23:02AA 4968 · flown by SkyWest	5h 25m	94%	63%
United Details →	FAT 18:40 → SFO 19:44UA 5349 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest	4h 19m	80%	59%
American Details →	FAT 12:56 → PHX 14:37AA 1831	1h 12m Phoenix	PHX 15:49 → SLC 18:29AA 3103	4h 33m	89%	56%
Alaska Details →	FAT 13:27 → SEA 15:43AS 384	3h 24m Seattle	SEA 19:07 → SLC 22:14AS 3298 · flown by SkyWest	7h 47m	95%	54%
Alaska Details →	FAT 13:04 → SAN 13:51AS 3491 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m San Diego	SAN 15:54 → SLC 19:02AS 3488 · flown by SkyWest	4h 58m	89%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	FAT 18:09 → LAX 19:32UA 5759 · flown by SkyWest	47m Los Angeles	LAX 20:19 → SLC 23:11UA 5744 · flown by SkyWest	4h 02m	61%	42%
American Details →	FAT 12:56 → PHX 14:37AA 1831	49m Phoenix	PHX 15:26 → SLC 18:10AA 4928 · flown by SkyWest	4h 14m	49%	34%
Alaska Details →	FAT 13:27 → SEA 15:43AS 384	1h 04m Seattle	SEA 16:47 → SLC 19:50AS 373	5h 23m	58%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON