tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:21 pm at Kalispell)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:29, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FCA 17:29 → SLC 19:15DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 7h 15m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → FCA 15:33 → MSP 19:15DL 2575 2h 23m Minneapolis MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391 8h 45m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → FCA 16:11 → SFO 17:50UA 5936 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m San Francisco SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413 7h 37m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → FCA 13:29 → SLC 15:23DL 3804 · flown by SkyWest 2h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 5h 49m 88% 68%
UnitedDetails → FCA 14:33 → DEN 16:50UA 1199 2h 40m Denver DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498 7h 42m 92% 63%
UnitedDetails → FCA 17:28 → DEN 19:45UA 1835 1h 45m Denver DEN 21:30 → PDX 23:13UA 1770 6h 45m 81% 54%
AmericanDetails → FCA 15:52 → DFW 20:30AA 1842 2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:54 → PDX 00:55 +1AA 2620 10h 03m 86% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FCA 16:11 → SFO 17:50UA 5936 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:54UA 2262 5h 43m 73% 52%
AmericanDetails → FCA 15:52 → DFW 20:30AA 1842 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:37 → PDX 23:38AA 1636 8h 46m 59% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON