tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:49 am at Kalispell)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 15:33, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FCA 15:33 → MSP 19:15DL 2575 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505 9h 25m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → FCA 17:29 → SLC 19:15DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SEA 23:59DL 2998 7h 30m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → FCA 12:22 → SLC 14:09DL 2813 3h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 7h 11m 100% 64%
UnitedDetails → FCA 16:11 → SFO 17:50UA 5936 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m San Francisco SFO 20:45 → SEA 23:10UA 1007 7h 59m 99% 59%
UnitedDetails → FCA 13:20 → LAX 15:23UA 5427 · flown by SkyWest 3h 44m Los Angeles LAX 19:07 → SEA 22:00UA 684 9h 40m 94% 59%
UnitedDetails → FCA 14:33 → DEN 16:50UA 1199 2h 29m Denver DEN 19:19 → SEA 21:26UA 2767 7h 53m 94% 58%
UnitedDetails → FCA 17:28 → DEN 19:45UA 1835 1h 25m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10UA 2651 6h 42m 80% 51%
AmericanDetails → FCA 15:52 → DFW 20:30AA 1842 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 10h 05m 86% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FCA 16:49 → ORD 21:40AA 1844 47m Chicago ORD 22:27 → SEA 00:59 +1AA 1459 9h 10m 74% 47%
UnitedDetails → FCA 16:11 → SFO 17:50UA 5936 · flown by SkyWest 54m San Francisco SFO 18:44 → SEA 21:12UA 1097 6h 01m 67% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON