Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:12 pm at Kalispell); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:29, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FCA 17:29 → SLC 19:15DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	7h 23m	99%	79%
United Details →	FCA 17:28 → DEN 19:45UA 1835	1h 25m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123	6h 28m	76%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON