Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1168 at 05:23 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 1168 FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 1123 FLL 17:39 → ATL 20:04 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1168 Delta Flight history →	FLL 05:23	ATL 07:11	3%	1%	0.9%	97%
DL 1215 Delta Flight history →	FLL 06:33	ATL 08:27	6%	1%	0.9%	94%
DL 1326 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:40	ATL 09:33	6%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 1603 Delta	FLL 07:26	ATL 09:26	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 1334 Delta Flight history →	FLL 09:56	ATL 11:48	9%	2%	0.8%	91%
DL 1341 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:32	ATL 17:42	11%	3%	0.7%	71%
DL 1512 Delta Flight history →	FLL 13:28	ATL 15:32	11%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 1670 Delta Flight history →	FLL 20:59	ATL 23:14	11%	4%	0.7%	73%
DL 1295 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:45	ATL 21:54	12%	4%	0.7%	69%
DL 1094 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:04	ATL 12:54	13%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 2063 Delta Flight history →	FLL 14:30	ATL 16:34	14%	3%	0.7%	57%
DL 2345 Delta Flight history →	FLL 18:28	ATL 20:35	16%	4%	0.7%	69%
B6 518 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:15	ATL 08:10	16%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 1271 Delta Flight history →	FLL 12:08	ATL 14:00	16%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 1413 Delta Flight history →	FLL 16:46	ATL 18:47	16%	4%	0.7%	61%
F9 4873 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 06:05	ATL 08:23	20%	6%	1.2%	72%
F9 2173 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 06:45	ATL 08:48	25%	6%	0.9%	81%
B6 1698 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:03	ATL 11:59	30%	9%	0.8%	76%
F9 3013 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 21:47	ATL 23:59	36%	15%	1.0%	46%
B6 1798 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	ATL 22:55	39%	16%	0.7%	49%
B6 2098 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	ATL 20:43	41%	16%	0.7%	41%
F9 1123 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:39	ATL 20:04	41%	15%	0.9%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON