Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1471 at 11:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 1471 FLL 11:10 → BOS 14:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest B6 70 FLL 14:37 → BOS 17:56 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1471 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:10	BOS 14:32	11%	5%	0.7%	75%
DL 1401 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:22	BOS 14:32	14%	5%	0.7%	70%
B6 690 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:00	BOS 09:14	15%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 522 Delta Flight history →	FLL 20:51	BOS 00:16	22%	6%	0.7%	47%
B6 270 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:02	BOS 13:15	28%	7%	0.7%	36%
B6 470 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:25	BOS 00:47	37%	14%	0.7%	63%
B6 70 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 14:37	BOS 17:56	41%	16%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON