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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Midway, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55WN 1866 2h 10m Chicago MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741 9h 30m 100% 87%
AllegiantDetails → FLL 07:20 → IND 10:12G4 3484 3h 02m Indianapolis IND 13:14 → BUR 14:37G4 609 10h 17m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 57m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 48m 93% 80%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 09:35 → BNA 10:50WN 4638 3h 10m Nashville BNA 14:00 → BUR 16:35WN 2363 10h 00m 99% 79%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 10:45 → BNA 12:00WN 4029 3h 40m Nashville BNA 15:40 → BUR 17:55WN 461 10h 10m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 22m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:03 → SFO 11:01UA 1540 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 10h 14m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:01 → DFW 08:16AA 1232 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:18 → BUR 11:54AA 1208 8h 53m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FLL 17:29 → DFW 19:49AA 1862 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 7h 29m 71% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON