Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3136 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 3136 FLL 06:04 → BWI 08:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2594 FLL 18:55 → BWI 21:23 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3136 Southwest	FLL 06:04	BWI 08:49	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 396 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 06:25	BWI 08:55	5%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 1651 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 08:00	BWI 10:30	6%	2%	0.6%	83%
WN 1910 Southwest	FLL 09:04	BWI 11:48	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1853 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 10:45	BWI 13:15	11%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 14:15	BWI 16:45	16%	4%	0.6%	57%
WN 4670 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 16:45	BWI 19:20	18%	5%	0.6%	56%
WN 999 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 17:50	BWI 20:20	22%	5%	0.6%	15%
F9 4412 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 09:28	BWI 12:10	23%	7%	0.8%	62%
F9 1028 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 10:26	BWI 13:19	24%	8%	0.8%	72%
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:30	BWI 14:58	33%	11%	0.8%	52%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	39%	17%	0.7%	36%
B6 2594 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:55	BWI 21:23	42%	19%	0.8%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON