Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2067 at 11:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2067 FLL 11:20 → CLE 14:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1590 FLL 20:55 → CLE 23:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2067 United Flight history →	FLL 11:20	CLE 14:05	8%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 2725 United Flight history →	FLL 14:54	CLE 17:46	11%	5%	0.6%	79%
F9 1045 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 11:31	CLE 14:36	24%	6%	0.8%	72%
F9 3451 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 19:52	CLE 22:57	28%	8%	0.8%	73%
B6 1590 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	CLE 23:55	30%	11%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON