Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1474 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1474 FLL 05:57 → CLT 08:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1984 FLL 18:54 → CLT 21:07 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1474 American Flight history →	FLL 05:57	CLT 08:02	7%	2%	0.5%	94%
AA 2087 American Flight history →	FLL 07:44	CLT 09:53	9%	2%	1.8%	93%
AA 1865 American Flight history →	FLL 10:06	CLT 12:10	14%	4%	2.0%	86%
AA 1451 American	FLL 10:15	CLT 12:22	15%	4%	1.8%	no record
AA 1877 American Flight history →	FLL 13:55	CLT 16:08	16%	4%	1.6%	76%
AA 1484 American	FLL 13:59	CLT 16:01	16%	4%	1.9%	no record
AA 2585 American	FLL 11:57	CLT 14:01	17%	5%	2.0%	no record
AA 1875 American Flight history →	FLL 16:12	CLT 18:26	19%	5%	1.6%	69%
AA 1861 American Flight history →	FLL 19:41	CLT 21:52	20%	6%	1.9%	58%
AA 2354 American	FLL 17:19	CLT 19:24	24%	5%	2.1%	no record
B6 749 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:05	CLT 14:15	31%	10%	0.7%	61%
B6 2149 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	CLT 23:05	35%	15%	0.7%	41%
B6 1149 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:59	CLT 21:09	41%	17%	0.7%	36%
F9 1984 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:54	CLT 21:07	41%	14%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON