Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2774 at 12:21 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 2774 FLL 12:21 → CVG 14:53 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest G4 386 FLL 17:27 → CVG 20:06 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2774 Delta Flight history →	FLL 12:21	CVG 14:53	14%	3%	0.7%	75%
DL 2776 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:56	CVG 18:33	16%	3%	0.7%	75%
F9 1477 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 08:45	CVG 11:34	16%	4%	0.6%	62%
G4 1992 Allegiant Flight history →	FLL 09:49	CVG 12:22	17%	4%	0.5%	91%
DL 661 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:22	CVG 21:57	23%	4%	0.7%	72%
G4 386 Allegiant	FLL 17:27	CVG 20:06	34%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON