Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 1480 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–37%.

Safest bet that day B6 1480 FLL 06:30 → DCA 09:04 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1880 FLL 18:47 → DCA 21:25 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1480 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:30	DCA 09:04	11%	4%	0.4%	92%
WN 1916 Southwest	FLL 12:30	DCA 15:04	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1893 American Flight history →	FLL 11:23	DCA 14:10	19%	6%	1.6%	86%
WN 2535 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 11:40	DCA 14:20	22%	5%	0.6%	78%
AA 1873 American Flight history →	FLL 11:41	DCA 14:14	23%	7%	1.6%	66%
B6 2080 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	DCA 23:33	27%	19%	0.7%	57%
B6 1680 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:42	DCA 14:15	30%	14%	0.7%	69%
B6 1880 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:47	DCA 21:25	37%	21%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON