Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1311 FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1417 FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1311 United Flight history →	FLL 08:00	DEN 10:18	5%	2%	0.5%	93%
UA 204 United Flight history →	FLL 10:20	DEN 12:45	6%	3%	0.5%	93%
WN 4264 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 08:50	DEN 11:00	8%	2%	0.4%	78%
UA 1417 United Flight history →	FLL 15:30	DEN 18:18	10%	4%	0.5%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	FLL 05:15 → MCI 07:15WN 1540	1h 06m Kansas City	MCI 08:21 → DEN 09:08WN 1566	5h 53m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	FLL 05:30 → TPA 06:35WN 429	1h 00m Tampa	TPA 07:35 → DEN 09:25WN 4019	5h 55m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:12 → DEN 09:22DL 346	5h 59m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON