Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1232 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 1232 FLL 06:01 → DFW 08:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1973 FLL 18:50 → DFW 21:06 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1232 American Flight history →	FLL 06:01	DFW 08:16	6%	2%	2.1%	92%
AA 2558 American Flight history →	FLL 07:00	DFW 09:17	8%	3%	2.1%	92%
AA 1712 American Flight history →	FLL 06:51	DFW 08:59	9%	3%	1.8%	86%
AA 1429 American Flight history →	FLL 11:49	DFW 14:06	17%	6%	1.8%	76%
AA 1866 American Flight history →	FLL 11:43	DFW 13:55	18%	5%	2.1%	86%
B6 979 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:29	DFW 10:38	18%	5%	0.7%	95%worse than usual
AA 1863 American Flight history →	FLL 15:04	DFW 17:22	22%	6%	1.8%	56%
B6 2182 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:00	DFW 15:15	25%	12%	0.7%	64%
AA 1862 American Flight history →	FLL 17:29	DFW 19:49	27%	7%	1.3%	44%
AA 2014 American Flight history →	FLL 16:26	DFW 18:39	27%	6%	1.8%	37%
B6 2279 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	DFW 23:16	30%	12%	0.7%	68%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	FLL 19:11	DFW 21:23	31%	7%	1.9%	30%
F9 1973 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:50	DFW 21:06	48%	13%	0.8%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON