Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2631 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2631 FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 2290 FLL 18:35 → DTW 21:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2631 Delta Flight history →	FLL 06:00	DTW 08:56	5%	1%	0.4%	92%
DL 655 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:27	DTW 14:26	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 1294 Delta Flight history →	FLL 16:40	DTW 19:46	13%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 1037 Delta Flight history →	FLL 20:10	DTW 23:18	15%	4%	0.6%	64%
B6 790 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:00	DTW 15:10	19%	8%	0.7%	77%
F9 2008 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 09:48	DTW 12:55	21%	6%	0.8%	54%
B6 2290 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	DTW 21:45	26%	9%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON