Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2603 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 2603 FLL 06:55 → EWR 09:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 106 FLL 18:40 → EWR 21:43 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2603 United Flight history →	FLL 06:55	EWR 09:59	4%	2%	0.8%	96%
UA 2330 United Flight history →	FLL 07:55	EWR 10:59	5%	3%	0.8%	96%
UA 2299 United	FLL 07:00	EWR 09:58	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 210 United Flight history →	FLL 11:11	EWR 14:15	13%	7%	0.8%	90%
B6 306 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:30	EWR 09:27	13%	3%	1.2%	85%
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:02	EWR 10:55	17%	5%	1.0%	65%
UA 1611 United Flight history →	FLL 12:46	EWR 15:50	23%	9%	0.8%	78%
UA 279 United Flight history →	FLL 17:48	EWR 20:59	26%	13%	0.9%	69%
UA 1800 United Flight history →	FLL 15:53	EWR 19:00	28%	16%	0.9%	61%
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	EWR 23:58	39%	17%	1.3%	51%
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	EWR 21:43	50%	25%	1.3%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON