Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:55 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 33–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4837 Southwest	FLL 20:05	HOU 21:48	33%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 4583 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 20:10	HOU 21:45	35%	8%	0.2%	30%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FLL 19:10 → STL 21:00WN 1875	1h 25m St Louis	STL 22:25 → HOU 00:35 +1WN 3004	6h 25m	86%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	FLL 19:11 → DFW 21:23AA 1868	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	5h 45m	69%	44%
Southwest Details →	FLL 20:25 → BNA 21:50WN 1852	55m Nashville	BNA 22:45 → HOU 00:50 +1WN 4474	5h 25m	68%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON