Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2169 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2169 FLL 08:40 → IAD 11:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2960 FLL 17:00 → IAD 19:38 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2169 United Flight history →	FLL 08:40	IAD 11:14	5%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1421 United Flight history →	FLL 12:13	IAD 14:49	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAD 19:38	37%	13%	1.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON