Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2314 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2314 FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 1495 FLL 12:56 → IAH 14:50 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2314 United Flight history →	FLL 07:00	IAH 08:45	7%	3%	0.5%	97%
UA 722 United Flight history →	FLL 09:00	IAH 10:45	10%	3%	0.5%	90%
UA 699 United Flight history →	FLL 11:21	IAH 13:22	11%	3%	0.5%	96%
UA 2162 United Flight history →	FLL 13:10	IAH 15:00	13%	3%	0.5%	84%
UA 2474 United Flight history →	FLL 19:13	IAH 21:09	13%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 2724 United Flight history →	FLL 15:14	IAH 17:10	14%	4%	0.5%	78%
UA 1696 United Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAH 18:56	15%	5%	0.5%	79%
B6 2179 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:45	IAH 11:47	21%	6%	0.7%	81%
B6 2379 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:45	IAH 15:47	27%	10%	0.7%	73%
B6 2779 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:00	IAH 23:02	30%	13%	0.7%	45%
F9 1495 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:56	IAH 14:50	39%	11%	0.8%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON