Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:59 pm at Fort Lauderdale)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: B6 514 at 20:31, 39%.

Nonstops today


B6 514 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:31	ISP 23:35	39%	11%	0.5%	75%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Islip on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FLL 16:45 → BWI 19:20WN 4670	3h 05m Baltimore	BWI 22:25 → ISP 23:46WN 4553	7h 01m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	FLL 17:50 → BWI 20:20WN 999	2h 05m Baltimore	BWI 22:25 → ISP 23:40WN 4321	5h 50m	83%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON