Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:59 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 37–43% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today B6 2118 FLL 13:20 → JAX 14:40 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest B6 978 FLL 18:40 → JAX 20:01 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


B6 2118 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:20	JAX 14:40	37%	11%	0.9%	68%
B6 18 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:10	JAX 22:41	40%	16%	1.2%	27%
B6 978 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	JAX 20:01	43%	14%	1.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON