Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2165 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 2165 FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 2702 FLL 18:36 → JFK 21:29 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2165 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:06	JFK 10:00	4%	2%	0.3%	90%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:12	JFK 13:59	9%	3%	0.7%	72%
B6 302 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 07:01	JFK 10:00	9%	4%	0.5%	95%
DL 305 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:29	JFK 18:48	12%	4%	0.7%	72%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:59	JFK 23:05	12%	5%	0.7%	59%
B6 1002 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:07	JFK 11:05	13%	5%	0.7%	72%
B6 1902 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 22:15	JFK 01:18	22%	12%	0.8%	64%
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:19	JFK 14:13	23%	10%	0.7%	64%
B6 602 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:57	JFK 14:54	24%	11%	0.8%	66%
B6 1802 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	JFK 21:39	35%	15%	0.7%	61%
B6 2702 JetBlue	FLL 18:36	JFK 21:29	37%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON