Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 800 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25%.

Safest bet that day DL 800 FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 2501 FLL 21:35 → LAX 23:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 800 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:53	LAX 10:05	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
B6 1301 JetBlue	FLL 07:00	LAX 09:35	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 1201 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:25	LAX 08:39	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
B6 2801 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:15	LAX 11:33	16%	4%	0.7%	82%
B6 1401 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	LAX 13:20	19%	6%	0.6%	69%
B6 101 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	LAX 21:00	25%	9%	0.7%	72%
B6 2501 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:35	LAX 23:58	25%	9%	0.7%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 25m	97%	85%
United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	1h 08m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	7h 30m	96%	81%
Southwest Details →	FLL 05:00 → HOU 06:30WN 1861	1h 00m Houston	HOU 07:30 → LAX 08:55WN 2007	6h 55m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON